Updated on March 2, 2021 10:03:00 AM EST
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. Afternoon volatility seems to be a requirement these days, so don’t be surprised to see some movement later today. The important question is, which direction will they go?
Tomorrow has an early morning report and an afternoon release that we will be watching. The first comes at 8:15 AM ET from payroll processor ADP who will announce their monthly private-sector employment estimate. Since it is not a government agency report, it isnt considered to be highly important. However, as with any employment-related data, it does draw some attention. This is especially true for this report because it is posted just a couple days before monthly employment figures are released by the Labor Department. I personally believe it is given more attention than it deserves, particularly because many rely on it to predict the monthly government figures, often without success. Still, if it shows a noticeable variance from expectations, it will likely cause movement in the markets and mortgage rates. Forecasts are calling for it to show 150,000 new private-sector payrolls.
The Fed Beige Book is the afternoon release. This report details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region via business contacts. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction following the 2:00 PM ET release. It usually does not cause a major move in the markets or mortgage rates. If we see a reaction, it will come during mid-afternoon hours.
©Mortgage Commentary 2021